Autonomous Train Market Analysis: Size, Share, and Forecast to 2030
The autonomous train market is projected to reach USD 18.9 billion by 2030 from USD 13.6 billion in 2024 at a CAGR of 5.7%. The need for rapid mass transit to reduce traffic congestion and journey time with enhanced safety has increased the demand for the autonomous train market globally. Autonomous trains promise enhanced safety by reducing the risk of human error, which is a leading cause of train accidents. These systems can detect obstacles, monitor track conditions, and respond to emergencies faster than human operators. For instance, Rio Tinto's AutoHaul project in Western Australia, which operates fully autonomous trains for hauling iron ore, has significantly improved safety by eliminating the potential for human error in train operations.
Autonomous trains can
optimize operations by maintaining consistent speeds, reducing energy
consumption, and optimizing routing. This leads to improved schedule adherence
and overall efficiency in transportation networks. By eliminating the need for
human drivers, autonomous trains can reduce labor costs and increase
productivity. Additionally, these systems can optimize maintenance schedules,
leading to lower maintenance costs over time.
Autonomous trains can
contribute to environmental sustainability by optimizing energy usage, reducing
emissions, and promoting modal shift from road to rail transport. The Metro
L9/L10 in Barcelona, Spain, employs driverless trains powered by renewable energy
sources, which helps reduce carbon emissions and environmental impact compared
to traditional diesel-powered trains.
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Continuous advancements
in sensors, artificial intelligence, and connectivity enable the development of
more sophisticated autonomous train systems, capable of handling complex tasks
and adapting to dynamic operating conditions. The Autonomous Rapid Transit
(ART) system in Zhuzhou, China, integrates AI technologies to operate
driverless electric trams, demonstrating the feasibility of autonomous urban
transportation solutions. These drivers collectively contribute to the growth
and adoption of autonomous train technology across various segments of the rail
industry, from freight to passenger transport.
High speed rail/Bullet train segment of
the market is projected to grow at the CAGR of 6.7% during the forecast period.
Passenger and train safety concerns are increasing, the high speed
rail/bullet train segment is anticipated to grow at the highest rate in
the market. The bullet or high-speed rail has a minimum speed of 200 km/h (120
mph) and is designed to travel at a faster pace than conventional rail. These
trains are widely used to link major cities and are considered as a crucial
means of both high-speed passenger and freight transit.
For instance, in 2021, China
developed a freight train in 2021 that can travel at 350 km/h, making it the
fastest freight transport train in existence. The train operates at higher
speeds than conventional trains, so safety is of the highest priority. The
market for autonomous high-speed rail and bullet train trains is anticipated to
expand as a result of a further advantage of lower operating expenses. Besides
there are several upcoming high-speed rail/bullet train projects which will
provide traction to the market and push the growth. For instance, in February
2024, Alstom has announced the production work of Chennai metro (India). The
project includes supply of 36 metro trainsets, equipped with a 25 KV power
supply and each comprising three cars, with a running speed of 80 km/h. Thus,
helps to boost the autonomous train market over the forecast period.
Communication/Computer-based
Train Control (CBTC) Due to advantages like real-time train
control information, which raises line capacity and improves the volume of
trains operating on the same line, the communication/computer-based train
control (CBTC) segment is predicted to lead the autonomous train market over
the forecast period. Automatic Train Control (ATC) enhances traffic flow and
energy consumption, which is key contributors to the train's increasing
demand over the forecast period. It automatically translates the computed
energy-optimized trip profile into precise control commands for the propulsion
and braking systems of the train. It serves to automate regular operations,
ensuring uniform speed among all trains and adherence to an optimized speed
profile, thus minimizing delays. Thus, real time optimization boost the
communication/computer-based train control segment.
North America region of
the market is projected to grow at the CAGR of 5.3% during the forecast period.
With a vast transcontinental rail network, North America offers a varied
transportation network. The region's smart transportation and smart city
initiatives are being developed as a result of the increased use of
cutting-edge technologies. As a result, demand for driverless trains is going
to grow in years to come. Regarding the deployment of autonomous train
technology, the North American market has been incredibly open and competitive.
This area has responded strongly to embracing the most recent developments in
technology. Leading domestic manufacturers in the North American autonomous
train market are Bombardier (Canada), GE Transportation (US), and CalAmp (US).
The US government has implemented many regulations aimed at enhancing the
safety of the country's railways. This has consequently led to a rise in
research and development (R&D) activities by both domestic and foreign
manufacturers of railway rolling stock and technology.
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