Electric Mid- and Large (9-14m) Bus Market: Trends and Forecasts for 2030

 The electric mid- and large (9-14m) bus market is projected to reach 171,000 units by 2030 from an estimated 66,593 units in 2023, growing at a CAGR of 14.4% during the forecast period. The increasing demand for electric mid- and large buses is driven by various factors, including government initiatives and subsidies for electric vehicle adoption, advancements in battery technology, and charging infrastructure.

"LFP batteries are anticipated to be the fastest growing for electric mid- and large (9-14m) bus during the forecast period."

Electric vehicles' performance, efficiency, and price are primarily determined by the batteries installed in them. Therefore, most companies are looking for advanced batteries that can address the concerns related to weight, charging time, and price. During the forecast period, the LFP batteries segment is expected to command the leading position in the electric mid- and large bus market.

LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate) batteries utilize phosphate as the cathode material. These batteries, distinguished by their lower cost and enhanced thermal stability compared to NMC batteries, find extensive application in high-performance electric mid- and large buses. They are favored for their ability to provide a high current rate, optimal thermal stability, and extended cycle life. Particularly suitable for long-haul buses, LFP batteries can accommodate large battery packs comprising low-density cells, ensuring the necessary range. Nonetheless, a notable limitation of LFP batteries is their lower energy density compared to NMC and NCA batteries.

Nonetheless, these batteries are more efficient in lower temperatures than the other batteries, making them suitable for buses even in harsh climatic conditions. Asia Pacific is a lucrative market for LFP batteries. Many Chinese OEMs have introduced advanced electric mid- and large buses with LFP batteries as they are inexpensive. These batteries find wide-scale applications in electric and hybrid buses. High usage by Chinese players is the prime factor driving the market growth. For instance, the Yutong E12 electric buses, which have been operating in Europe for more than seven years and in the UK for five years, offer the exact LFP battery pack specifications, with more than 100,000 buses sold globally. Similarly, BYD (China) offers its K9 electric bus powered by an LFP battery with the longest range of 250 km on a single charge. This incorporation of LFP batteries by most Chinese manufacturers is a major driving factor for LFP batteries in the electric mid- and large bus market.

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"The Battery Electric Vehicle  segment held the largest market share in the electric mid- and large (9-14m) bus market during the forecast period."

Pure battery electric mid- and large buses (BEVs) are anticipated to be the predominant force in the market during the forecast period. The growth is largely attributed to the proven effectiveness of lithium-ion batteries and developments happening in this technology. Numerous OEMs are actively engaged in research and development endeavors aimed at cultivating innovative and more efficient battery technologies, thereby propelling the advancement of this sector. The electric mid- and large bus market is further bolstered by favorable governmental regulations pertaining to BEVs, with several administrations strategizing the replacement of existing public fleets with electric counterparts. The alluring incentives, subsidies, and tax exemptions extended by diverse governments are anticipated to foster a substantial surge in the sales volume of advanced pure electric mid- and large buses in the foreseeable future.

The Asia Pacific region is the largest electric mid- and large (9-14m) bus market during the forecast period.

The Asia Pacific region is poised to emerge as the primary market for electric mid- and large bus throughout the forecast period. This trend is primarily attributed to the escalating imperative to mitigate urban pollution and reduce reliance on fossil fuels in the region. Additionally, there is a notable increase in government initiatives aimed at promoting clean public transportation. A significant number of key players in the electric mid- and large bus market, including BYD (China), Yutong (China), King Long (China), Zhongtong (China), Tata Motors (India), Ashok Leyland (India), JBM Auto Limited (India), among others, are based in the Asia Pacific region. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of electric mid- and large buses fleets in various countries within the region stands as a pivotal driving force propelling the Asia Pacific region to dominate the electric mid- and large bus market.  The reduction in the cost of batteries and EVs and the development of charging infrastructures also provide an excellent opportunity for the growth of the electric mid- and large bus market. Many countries in the Asia Pacific region, including China, South Korea, India, and Japanese markets, have favorable government policies and mandates that promote reducing emissions and using green technology in public transportation.

Key Market Players

The key players in the electric mid- & large bus market BYD (China), Yutong (China), CAF (Solaris) (Spain), VDL Groep (Netherlands), and AB Volvo (Sweden). The key strategies adopted by major companies to sustain their position in the market are expansions, contracts and agreements, and partnerships.

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