Global Commercial Vehicle Outlook: Market to Hit 3.5 Million Units by 2025

 The global medium & heavy commercial vehicle sales were 3.3 million units in 2024 and are projected to reach 3.5 million units in 2025, witnessing a YoY growth of 4.4% from 2024 to 2025. Further, within the regional market Asia Pacific region accounted for almost half of the market share. While the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles held the major share, the Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) segment is expected to grow at a higher rate over 2024-2025.

The growth of commercial vehicle sales is influenced by various factors, such as the Integration of Autonomous Technologies, Advancements in Energy Storage Systems (ESS), the emerging concept of Second Life Battery, and advancements in electrification and battery technologies.

Countries such as China, Brazil, South Korea, and India have increased their investments in the development of the automotive industry including commercial vehicles due to their growing urban population and economies. Due to such investments, the demand for commercial vehicles will be higher during the forecast period.

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“Hydrogen propulsions are anticipated to witness significant growth in 2025”

Strong growth is anticipated in the hydrogen propulsions in the upcoming years in the commercial vehicles sector. In 2025, fuel cell technology and hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2ICE) will drive a shift in the commercial vehicle market towards sustainable mobility, supported by major investments from companies like Volvo, Stellantis, Tata Motors, Reliance, Cummins, Deutz, PACCAR, and MAN. Government policies and infrastructure developments, such as India's Green Hydrogen Mission and California's renewable hydrogen initiatives, are estimated to further accelerate the adoption of the technology. For instance, Volvo plans to launch hydrogen-powered internal combustion engine trucks with High-Pressure Direct Injection (HPDI) technology by the end of this decade and will begin on-road tests in 2026.

“Increasing focus on EV Infrastructure to propel the demand for BEVs”

There have been significant investments in the EV infrastructure which are expected to propel the market for Battery electric trucks and buses. A few developments in the sector include the EU AFIR mandates for at least 350 kW HDV chargers every 60 km on the TEN-T network by 2025, resulting in boosting infrastructure for heavy-duty vehicles. Nearly USD 4.2 billion in the US was spent as a private investment to support the National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy for utility and regulatory planning including HDV charging infrastructure. ZF introduced the CeTrax 2 dual electric central drive in September 2024, enabling OEMs to produce electric heavy-duty trucks (up to 44 tonnes) with minimal platform changes. All these developments to improve the global charging infrastructure will boost the market for battery electric commercial vehicles.

“Asia Pacific is expected to be the largest market in 2025.”

Asia Pacific region holds the major share in the sales volume of CV. The major factor is the intensive manufacturing and export of vehicles in China combined with the recent developments focused on EV charging technologies and technologies for battery swapping for EVs. A few advancements in the region include, CATL launching its new Tectrans series of batteries for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, offering supercharging, long-life, and long-range, Axrad Renew Power Agri Machine’s (India) development of an electric self-charging commercial vehicle (E-SCV) featuring a Sodium-ion battery, solar panels, and lightweight composite materials. In China, battery swapping is emerging as a key trend, with Nio and CATL expanding their networks to address range anxiety and lower EV costs for urban and fleet users. China is the most dominant country in the commercial vehicle industry in terms of sales and supply of raw materials and components. The country also has a well-established supply chain of Electric commercial vehicles and their batteries, due to which over 60-65% of them are manufactured in China. With these developments in alternate powertrain technologies, domestic players are expanding their network in neighboring Asian countries and other worlds. Furthermore, India is another promising market that showed significant uptake of ICE as well as electric CVs in 2024. This is mainly due to domestic public transportation which continued to add electric buses onto their fleet. Japan, South Korea, and other South Asian countries are following a similar trend, which supports the dominance of the Asia Pacific region in 2025 for the commercial vehicles segment.

Key Players

The top commercial vehicle OEMs in the market are TATA Motors (India), AB Volvo (Sweden), Daimler AG (Germany), PACCAR Inc. (US), HINO (Japan), IVECO S.p.A (Italy), MAN (Germany), and Ashok Leyland (India). The other companies that support the automobile industry with technology development are CATL, Robert Bosch, ZF, and others. These companies adopted new product launches, acquisitions, partnerships, collaborations, and other key strategies to gain traction in the commercial vehicle market.

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