Global Thermal Systems Market Size, Share & Trends [2026-2033]

The thermal systems market for ICE vehicles is projected to reach USD 50.28 billion by 2033 from USD 44.85 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 1.6% during the forecast period. The market is supported by increasing vehicle production, rising thermal loads, and the need to improve energy efficiency across ICE and EVs. While vehicle electrification is creating new thermal-management requirements for batteries, motors, and power electronics, ICE and hybrid vehicles continue to represent a significant revenue base for engine cooling, charge-air cooling, HVAC, and exhaust thermal-management systems. According to ACEA in Europe, hybrid-electric vehicles accounted for 37.3% of new passenger car registrations in H1 2026, while battery-electric vehicles accounted for 20.7% of new passenger car registrations in H1 2026, highlighting the continued coexistence of multiple powertrain technologies.

Increasing focus on engine efficiency and emissions control is creating new opportunities for engine thermal-management systems. Engine downsizing, engines with turbochargers, higher power density, and tighter operating-temperature requirements are increasing the need for efficient heat rejection and temperature control, supporting demand for radiators, charge-air coolers, EGR coolers, oil coolers, electric water pumps, cooling fans, thermostats, and thermal valves. The opportunity is particularly relevant in gasoline and diesel vehicles. At the same time, regulatory requirements such as Euro 7 are encouraging further optimization of engine and exhaust thermal management in Europe.

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Reducing HVAC energy consumption is another revenue pocket as automakers focus on improving overall vehicle efficiency. HVAC systems are increasingly being designed to deliver cabin comfort with lower energy consumption, particularly in hybrid and electric vehicles where auxiliary loads directly affect fuel economy or driving range, creating demand for electric compressors, heat pumps, efficient heat exchangers, thermal valves, and compact HVAC modules. Suppliers are also integrating HVAC with the wider vehicle thermal system to manage cabin, battery, power electronics, and drivetrain temperatures through a common architecture.

Hybridization is creating additional demand for integrated thermal-management systems, such as increasing use of electric coolant pumps, multi-way valves, chillers, heat exchangers, and multiple cooling circuits. The strong penetration of hybrids in major markets provides a sizeable opportunity for suppliers, particularly as automakers continue to use hybrid powertrains as a transition technology alongside both conventional ICE and fully electric vehicles. In the EU, hybrid-electric vehicles held the largest powertrain share at 37.3% in H1 2026.

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles is creating new revenue opportunities in battery and power-electronics thermal management. According to the IEA, global electric car sales exceeded 20 million units in 2025, representing one-quarter of global new car sales. The increase in battery capacity, fast-charging capability, and power density is raising the importance of maintaining optimal operating temperatures for batteries, electric motors, and power electronics, driving demand for battery cooling systems, chillers, coolant pumps, heat exchangers, e-compressors, heat pumps, and integrated thermal modules. As thermal efficiency becomes increasingly linked to vehicle range and charging performance, thermal management is moving from a supporting system to a key component of EV performance.

Commercial vehicles represent a distinct thermal opportunity because their higher cooling requirements and continuous operating cycles require more robust thermal architecture. Electric trucks and buses require high-capacity battery cooling, e-motor and inverter cooling, high-voltage heating, and thermal management during high-power charging, while ICE trucks continue to require engine cooling, charge-air cooling, transmission cooling, exhaust thermal management, and heavy-duty HVAC. For instance, MAHLE identifies battery cooling plates, 800V electric compressors, electronics cooling plates, and coolant pumps as key technologies for electrified commercial vehicles, while its conventional CV portfolio includes cooling modules, charge-air coolers, and low-temperature radiators. This creates a two-track opportunity for thermal suppliers: higher-value electrified systems as electric CV penetration increases, alongside continued demand for high-capacity ICE thermal systems across the existing truck and bus fleet.

Asia Pacific is expected to remain a major revenue pocket due to its large vehicle production base and simultaneous adoption of ICE, hybrid, and electric powertrains. According to the IEA, China remains the largest center for electric-vehicle manufacturing, accounting for nearly 75% of global electric-car production in 2025, while nearly 22 million electric cars were produced globally. At the same time, India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian markets continue to support demand for conventional and hybrid vehicles, creating opportunities for suppliers across engine cooling, HVAC, battery thermal management, heat pumps, e-compressors, and integrated thermal modules. As a result, the region's revenue opportunity is being driven not only by EV penetration but also by the increasing thermal content per vehicle across ICE, hybrid, and electric platforms.

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